Beyond the Basics: Advanced Forecasting for Azure DevOps

Azure DevOps (ADO) is a powerhouse for enterprise planning. It has Delivery Plans, Velocity charts, and even a "Forecast" toggle on the backlog.

But if you've ever tried to use that "Forecast" toggle for a complex project, you've likely run into limitations. It's often too simplistic, relying on a fixed velocity number that you manually input or a simple average of the last 5 sprints.

The Problem with Built-in ADO Forecasting

It's deterministic: It draws a line based on a single velocity number. It doesn't tell you the probability of hitting that line.
Manual input required: Often, you have to guess what your velocity will be, rather than letting the data speak for itself.
Ignores variability: It assumes every sprint will be the same, ignoring the reality of holidays, sick leave, and blocked items.

A Better Way: Monte Carlo with ForecastFlow

This is where ForecastFlow steps in as the perfect companion to your Azure Boards. By using your Personal Access Token (PAT), we can securely analyze your historical work item data without moving your data out of ADO.

Seamless Integration

We don't just read "Closed" items. We look at the actual dates items moved into "Done" to build a true throughput histogram. This captures the real behavior of your team, including those weeks where "nothing got done" followed by a week where "everything closed at once."

Answering "When?" with Confidence

Instead of showing a stakeholder a single date that will likely be wrong, show them a probability distribution.

"Based on the last 3 months of data from Azure DevOps, we have:"

50% Chance
Finished by Oct 15th (Aggressive)
85% Chance
Finished by Nov 2nd (Realistic)
95% Chance
Finished by Nov 10th (Safe Bet)

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